Q3 2026, in five numbers
Original reads on public lending data, not aggregated headlines. Every figure below is sourced and dated, split by SMB and consumer lending since they're genuinely different markets.
Approval is up from the trough, but still below pre-pandemic norms
52% of small business employer firms got full approval in the Federal Reserve's 2025 Small Business Credit Survey (released March 2026), the most complete annual read on US small business credit access. That's still below 2018–19 levels. The gap is largely a lender-type story: small banks and credit unions approve at meaningfully higher rates than online lenders, a pattern that's held for several years running.
Source: Federal Reserve Banks, 2026 Report on Employer Firms (Small Business Credit Survey), released March 2026.
Small business profitability growth has outpaced mid-sized firms since May 2026, per Bank of America Institute's own transaction data. Their September 2026 Business Checkpoint (BofA broadened this from "Small Business" to "Business" Checkpoint this month, now covering firms up to $50M in revenue) also flags hiring-related payments improving for small businesses specifically, and AI-related spend accelerating across both segments.
Source: Bank of America Institute, Business Checkpoint, September 2026 edition.
Demand is rising faster than approval is improving
Credit applications hit their highest level since October 2021 in June 2026, per the New York Fed's Survey of Consumer Expectations Credit Access Survey. The overall rejection rate ticked up slightly to 16.1%, but that's still well below the 23.1% reading from June 2025. Demand is recovering faster than rejection rates are falling.
Source: Federal Reserve Bank of New York, SCE Credit Access Survey, published July 20, 2026.
The Fed's broader household survey tells a starker story: one-third of applicants were denied credit or approved for less than they asked for in 2025, up 5 points from 2021. Racial and ethnic gaps in denial rates, which narrowed briefly during the pandemic, have reverted to their 2018 levels.
Source: Federal Reserve Board, Economic Well-Being of U.S. Households in 2025, released May 2026.
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